My Miss Aurelia (9) is a worthy favourite for trainer Steve Asmussen. She’s unbeaten in three starts in New York State. After a maiden breaker at Saratoga, she won a 6½ furlong Grade 2 by a neck, on a sloppy track. She tried a one turn mile in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont last time and wired the field by 5½ lengths. Her time was a shade faster than Juvenile favourite Union Rags ran in the colts division. Jockey Corey Nakatani found himself on an easy lead there and may not be afforded the same luxury here. Her trainer accepting she may have to stalk here has worked her in behind horses and she’s rated kindly. There's lots to like.          

Woodbine-based handler Mark Casse runs a really interesting filly here in the Ontario-bred NORTHERN PASSION (10). She won the Grade 3 Natalma on turf at her home track in September in taking style. The form of that race has been franked when the third came back to win a Grade 1 at Keeneland. Why run here on dirt? Connections could easily have stayed at home and mopped up a decent state bred purse or run in the Breeders’ Cup on turf in the earlier Juvenile Fillies Turf. Sometimes you have to follow the hint given by a trainer of Casse’s standing, especially when there’s 14/1 and bigger available.     

The unbeaten Weemissfrankie (11) beat Candrea (2) in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. Before that, she ran down Self Preservation (6) in another Grade 1 at Del Mar. She’s had a good pace set up in both races sitting off fast fractions. Although she and the speedy Candrea can’t be ruled out, they do come out of slower races on paper than those on the east coast.       

As well as My Miss Aurelia, The New York form is represented by another unbeaten filly in Grace Hall (5). Trainer Tony Dutrow found a nice prep race for her at Delaware and she won easily at 2/5. Before that, she won the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga in September. She shapes as if she’ll be a top class router although her best sibling, Kind Regards, was a pure sprinter.

Putthebabiesdown (7) ran well to be third in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland and had dirt winner Frolic's Revenge (12) back in fourth. She makes her dirt debut here. That is the case with Homecoming Queen (8). Aidan O’Brien’s filly won a listed race at the Curragh last month. The half sister to stakes stars Queen’s Logic and Arc winner Dylan Thomas and makes her dirt debut. The other European shipper Questing (1) has lost a pair of Group 3s by short margins in her latest starts. This is her dirt debut also and her pedigree suggests she’ll handle the surface. The rail draw for a filly that has never had dirt kicked in her face looks a negative.    

Miss Netta (4) won first time out at Saratoga before running poorly in third behind My Miss Aurelia. She broke badly and could rebound at a big price. Rocket Twentyone (3) upset a Grade 3 field at Arlington at 15/1 and may be double that here.      

Awesome Belle (14) is for the déjà vu players. She represents the same owner and trainer as last year’s winner Awesome Feather. She comes here with a similar profile having contested Florida state bred races.         

---

How has the favourite fared?
I don’t know if the oft-mentioned ‘favourite backers’ actually exist but if they do, and you are one of them, this division has been very kind to you recently as the post-time favourite has entered the winner’s circle in eight of the last nine runnings of the Juvenile Fillies! Overall following the market leader on the 27 occasions this division had been contested has yielded a healthy profit of £143.50 to a £10 level stake. In addition, six of the seven odds-on shots have taken the top prize, making this the only division that following the skinny prices shows a positive return.

Last time out
Eighteen of 27 winners, including eight of the last nine, won their final prep and six others took the runner up spot. Only one filly has taken this division after failing to finish in the frame on her last start, and that was the first winner Outstandingly. Final prep locations have been reasonably evenly distributed with the Frizette at Belmont, the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita and Alcibiades at Keeneland providing logical stopping points; although five of the winners have taken in races at less obvious locations.

Run styles
The ability to lie close to the pace has been the key in this race in recent years, amply demonstrated by the fact that five of the last six winners were in the first three at the first call, no further back than 2½ lengths behind the leader. Only a suicidally fast pace would change that.

Juvenile Fillies @ Churchill Downs
Last year I wrote that this was the race to look at the head of the market when it was contested at Churchill Downs. Those of you who followed that advice were handsomely rewarded as post time favourite Awesome Feather won clearly at a juicy 4.2/1. That made it five wins for the jolly from seven runnings here and, in addition, all three odds on shots have collected.

AWESOME BELLE made all and ran out a 7½ length winner of this state-bred stakes race. She beat last time out maiden winner Macanuda in a time of 1.47-46. She represents last year’s winning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winning connections of Awesome Feather. Awesome Belle went easy fractions of 25 and 49 4/5 on the front.

 

HOMECOMING QUEEN was beaten a neck in a Group 3 prior to this. She made the most of the class drop going wire to wire to win by 4¼ lengths. The runner-up Absolute Crackers although a maiden was second in a valuable race the time before and is a fair type. She was 2½ lengths clear of the third Ronan’s Bay.     
The winning time was 1.41-60 

---

MY MISS AURELIA made it a perfect 3 for 3 with an all the way win. She had to duel with Spare Change going 22 3/5 and 46 but shrugged off that rival and drew away to win by 5½ lengths. Many thought this Grade 1 was a match and Stopshoppingmaria who had looked unlucky on debut against My Miss Aurelia would exact her revenge. In the end, Todd Pletcher’s filly was a well beaten runner-up, never looking a threat once she had been bumped at the start. Miss Netta won on her debut at Saratoga but broke inward and was rank early on. She was third beaten 9 lengths by the winner.
My Miss Aurelia’s winning time was 1.35-22, a couple of ticks faster than the colts ran The Champagne half an hour later.

---

STEPHANIE'S KITTEN may have franked the form of the gals that beat her in the Grade 3 Natalma with a 1½ length success here. Settled off the pace by jockey Johnny Velazquez, she closed the gap and wore down runner-up Heart Of Destiny. She was a neck clear of Putthebabiesdown who pulled almost 4 lengths clear of the 4th. The pace seemed fair (23 and 47) and the winning time was 1.43-12.

---

WEEMISSFRANKIE has extended her unbeaten record to 3 with a half a length success. The winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante was never far off the pace (22 4/5, 46 3/5) set by Self Preservation. Rafael Bejarano came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up late. The runner-up Candrea ran really well the way the race was run as she dueled 3-wide. Bob Baffert’s filly was half a length clear of Charm The Maker who had unseated her rider during the gate load. The winning time was 1.42-92.

ALSINDI who broke her maiden at first asking at Yarmouth went even better here with a group victory here. Held up in rear, she stayed on strongly inside final furlong to lead close home to win by a neck from Questing. She made the running, quickening a furlong out. She kept on well when passed by the winner. She was ½ a length clear of Nayarra.
The winning time was 1.24-46.

---

Local handler Mark Casse may have a nice filly on his hands in the shape of NORTHERN PASSION. This was her first attempt at a mile and her first start on turf and she beat a fair field by a length and a half. Settled off the pace she rallied between rivals and was driven clear. Dayatthespa stalked the pace and took command in the stretch only to be run down by the winner. She finished a couple of lengths clear of Stephanie's Kitten who stayed on giving the impression she needs further. Spirited Miss was one paced in the stretch to be fourth but did finish a little way clear of the remainder. Quality Lass set the early fractions of 23 1/5 and 46 2/5
The winning time of 1.35-00 was half a second faster than the males division later on the card.

---

ROCKET TWENTYONE upset this field at 16/1. A winner of her only start at Prairie Meadows in a slow time, she showed much improved form here. She was forwardly placed just off the pacesetter and made a steady bid to challenge in mid-stretch. She was ½ a length too good for the front-running Essence Of Bubbles who went 23 2/5 and 47 3/5 on the lead. Ann Of The Dance was ridden reservedly early and stayed on well to be ½ a length behind the runner-up. 
The winning time was 1.39-13

 

---

GRACE HALL made it 2 for 2 in her career with a victory in this Grade 1. She settled on the outside and rallied to win by 1¾ lengths. She beat the previously unbeaten Judy The Beauty who made a bid at the quarter pole but was outfinished by the winner. And Why Not broke slowly and raced well back. She stayed on to be third.   
The early pace was a contested one with Georgie’s Angel and Born Bullish going 22 3/5 and 45 4/5. Grace Hall ran the 7 furlongs in 1.23-74.