7

01:30 Churchill Downs (USA) 05 Nov 2011

Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly And Mare Sprint

Grade 1 | Dirt | Class 1 | 3YO plus

Winner $572,100 - 12 ran

7f

Yielding Dirt (Dirt)

Draw Advantage: None

Expert Analysis

Reporter: At The Races

Turbulent Descent (3) has been only been beaten twice in eight career starts. The three-year-old won the Santa Anita Oaks over two turns but has looked even better over one. She won a Grade 2 at Keeneland and was runner-up to an in-form It’s Tricky over a mile at Belmont. Her signature victory was in the Test at Saratoga over this 7 furlong distance. In that Grade 1, she stalked the pace and drew off beating Pomeroys Pistol by almost four lengths. Time off since that success is a worry. That may have been by design by trainer Mike Puype as she has a great record fresh. A strong contender but maybe an overbet one. She may be well under 2/1 in a championship race taking on her elders for the first time

SWITCH (6) made her comeback at Keeneland last month after a couple of months break. She found 6 furlongs an inadequate test although she stayed on powerfully to be fourth. With the benefit of that run and racing over an extra furlong, she’s a likely to show her best form. This year, she’s given superstar Blind Luck a race and ran Classic bound Havre de Grace to three quarters of a length on dirt. She was runner-up in this race last year and has decent prospects of going one better here.

It may be 8 or 10/1 bar two with Pomeroys Pistol (12) one of the better chances of the second tier of contenders. She improved off her runner up try to Turbulent Descent to batter older females in a Grade 2 in New York. Tamarind Hall (10) was beaten four lengths and an out-of-sorts Tar Heel Mom (7) was well beaten. The latter mare was sharp in mid-summer and may be ridden aggressively along with Champagne D'oro (4), with the hat-trick seeking Golden Mystery (9) pressing the pace.

Musical Romance (5) is a consistent filly who is well worth a look for the trifecta or even the exacta. The same comment applies to Tanda (8) who ran third in a Grade 1 on her only start on dirt. The surface shouldn’t be an issue to twice synthetic track stakes winner Great Hot (2). She ran well in a Grade 1 on dirt at Santa Anita in October. She could be the upset special.

Her Smile (11) won the Grade 1 Prioress easily beating Pomeroys Pistol. She’s not picked a hoof up in two races since.

PAUL'S VERDICT

Win Selection:

Switch (6)

Exotic Bets:
 
Combination Exacta (6 Bets): Turbulent Descent (3), Switch (6) and Great Hot (2)
Combination Exacta (6 Bets): Turbulent Descent (3), Switch (6) and Musical Romance (5)
Combination Exacta (6 Bets): Turbulent Descent (3), Switch (6) and Tanda (8)

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Expert Analysis

Reporter: At The Races

Dubai Majesty

  • Trainer: Bret Calhoun
  • Jockey: Jamie Theriot
  • Owner: Martin Stables & Dan Morgan
  • Odds: $8.60
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 0/4 (0%) | Odds on Favs: 0/1 (0%)
  • Longest priced winner: 36.5/1 Dubai Majesty (2010)
  • Shortest priced loser: 4/5 Ventura (2009)

After an initial introduction as a six furlongs contest on the slop at Monmouth Park the last three renewals have taken place over seven furlongs.

All four runnings of this division have been decided by the prevailing pace profile. Two of them have seen deep closers benefit from scorching early fractions and the other pair fell to runners who sat on or close to a more modest pace.

Although all four favourites have been beaten all the winners to date have returned single figure prices.

Important Pointers

  • Try and work out the likely pace profile; it is as important to decide how the race will be won as it is work out the likely winner of the race.
  • Concentrate at the top of the market.
  • BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

    Year Host Winner Jockey Trainer Owner Odds
    2007 Monmouth Park Maryfield E Trujillo D O'Neill Gorman, Mestrandrea & Perry $8.00
    2008 Santa Anita Ventura G Gomez R Frankel Juddmonte Farms $2.80
    2009 Santa Anita Informed Decision J Leparoux J Sheppard Augustin Stable $3.40
    2010 Churchill Downs Dubai Majesty J Theriot B Calhoun Martin Stables & Dan Morgan $8.60

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Administrator

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    Brazilian import GREAT HOT gained her first graded success here. She tried longer and Grade 1 company last time and was far from discredited. Over this trip, she had too much late on for this field of three-year-olds. Groupie Doll rallied to be a good runner-up ahead of the forwardly placed Mizdirection. Honey Chile set the pace in 22 and 44 3/5.
    Great Hot ran the 7 furlongs in a very fair 1.21-70.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN has taken time to regain her form since an unsuccessful trip to Royal Ascot. She bounced back to her best on a surface which saw her win a stake in April. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche had her close to a 21 4/5, 44 3/5 pace set by Rapport. The three-year-old challenged on the turn and won by a head completing the 6 furlongs in a smart 1.08-72. The admirable runner-up Musical Romance just missed. She was ¾ length clear of odds on favourite Switch who was outsprinted early and closed really well late over a trip patently too short for her. Shotgun Gulch was outrun along the inside, angled out approaching the stretch and made a late gain.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    With Blind Luck and Ask the Moon running below form, ZAZU’s task was made much simpler. She broke slowly but rallied to beat Ultra Blend half a length. The runner-up also started slowly and kept on really well to finish 1½ lengths clear of Great Hot. The interior fractions were quick (22 3/5, 46 1/5) set by Champagne d’Oro. Ask the Moon stalked the pace and faded. Blind Luck failed to make any headway and was always last. It subsequently transpired she sustained an injury in the race.
    Zazu is a three-year-old who has now won two Grade 1s this year. She completed the distance in 1.45-59.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    BROKEN DREAMS won her first career stake with a half a length success over Givine. She broke a little slowly and was settled off the pace by Garrett Gomez. After stalking Separate Forest, gained the advantage along the fence in deep stretch and won gamely. Givine rallied 4 wide to finish second in front of Tanda. She stalked three deep and came 4 wide into the stretch to close willingly to the wire.  
    The winning time was 1.12-23 off early fractions of 21 3/5 and 43 1/5.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    The three-year-old POMEROYS PISTOL is improving and beat her elders here. She came into this race off a runner-up try against Turbulent Descent and crushed her rivals by 4 lengths. She sat close to pacemaker Moontune Miss (22 and 45) taking it up approaching the stretch. Tamarind Hall stalked the pace but didn’t have the pace of the winner. Lovely Lil bobbled at the start and came along for the show. Tar Heel Mom ran poorly.
    The winning time was 1.16-60

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    GOLDEN MYSTERY dueled early through fractions of 21 4/5 and 44 2/5 before asserting her authority. She won by three lengths from D’cats Meow in a time of 1.09.00. Winning Image was almost 3 lengths back in third.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    TANDA, making her first start for her new trainer, scored for the first time in 15 months. She was made favourite in a field of only four and won by 1¼ lengths in 1.15-34. She prompted the pace (22 4/5 and 45) and took up the running entering the straight. The runner-up She’s Cheeky saved ground chasing the pace. Irish Gypsy showed speed along with Mildly Offensive but both weakened.

    Expert Analysis

    Reporter: Paul Quigley

    TURBULENT DESCENT bounced back from her odds-on defeat by It’s Tricky with an easy 3¾ length win  here. Settled in fourth position by jockey David Flores, she ranged up wide and drew away under a hand ride. The runner-up Pomeroys Pistol tracked the pace and ran well to be best of the rest. Roman Treasure showed good speed going 23 and 45 4/5 and was no match for the winner in the stretch. American Lady sat second behind the pacesetter and had no excuses. Her Smile angled in at the back of the field, was urged along while inside and failed to rally.  
    Turbulent Descent ran 7 furlongs in 1.24-17.  

    Video Highlights

    • Replay: 01:30 Churchill Downs 4th Nov 2011