Last year’s race

• Winner: Salsify
• Jockey: C J Sweeny
• Trainer: Rodger Sweeny
• Owner: Mrs J B Sweeney
• Age: 7 Weight: 12st
• Starting Price: 7-1
• Season Form Figures: 12P1
• Previous Best: 1st - Hunters Chase, Leopardstown

The age factor has been an important element as 20 of the last 22 winners were aged ten or younger from around half the runners so that make that your first port of call. Both winners aged 11+ were previous winners of the race. Next up, we have to seriously consider allying ourselves purely to last-time-out winners. Not so much because 22 of the last 27 Foxhunters’ won last time out but because 14 of the last 15 win-or-placed horses over the last five years were all last-time-out winners. In fact, four of the first six home last season won on their most recent start and the first six and eight horses past the post in 2011 and 2010 were last-time-out winners.

14 of the last 15 win-or-placed horses over the last five years were all last-time-out winners.

The fact that 21 of the last 24 winners emerged from a pointing background will please the traditionalists but beware for punting purposes as the three that did not were in the last eight years. The most significant guide of late has been Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival featuring four of the last six winners but that race was abandoned last year. Therefore previous form in the CGA Foxhunter Chase (three of the last nine winners ran in last year’s race) is the most noteworthy relevant guide for this season’s running and Salsify will be bidding to become the seventh dual winner of the race and the eighth Irish-trained winner since 1983.

Only Cappa Bleu over the last two decades had not under Rules having done his share of winning in point-to-points and don’t be scared of chancing a long shot or two as seven of the last 12 were sent off at 14/1+. In-running punters should certainly take note of the front runner’s record as six of the last 17 winners led heading out onto the second circuit and some will argue that should have been seven but for Baby Run’s exit when leading at the penultimate fence two years ago.

Updated 8 March

SALSIFY won this race last year under a super ride from Colman Sweeney and he is a worthy favourite this time round as well. He has been doing very well this winter on testing ground in Irish Hunter Chases; twice loosing out to the useful Tammy’s Hill but reversed form with that rival last time which puts him spot on to defend his crown. A return to better ground in a strongly run race is sure to suit him down to the ground. He is still a young horse who could still improve and if he does he will take a lot of beating.

Chapoturgeon only has a length to find with last year’s winner. He has followed a similar route to last year in winning the 2m 6f Hunter Chase at Newbury in January. He scored with ease that day and has not been since then and will surely be primed to the minute by Richard Barber and his team. Jack Barber is gaining experience all the time he once again rates as a danger to Salsify. He is part-owned by Paul Nicholls who trains Tricky Trickster. This horse took a horror fall at Uttoxeter a few seasons ago and nearly lost his life. Since that he has been switched to Hunter Chases this season by Paul Nicholls and won a fairly meaningless race at Huntingdon on his comeback. The soft ground was against him last time when chasing home Bob’s Law at Ffos Las but that race ensured he is qualified for the Foxhunters. It’s difficult to access how much ability he retains but the fact he was well-fancied for Gold Cups and Grand Nationals in the past makes him of interest. His trainer has also been making positive noises and he should run well for Stephen Clements who has tasted Festival success in the past on Oiseau De Nuit in the Grand Annual.

Cottage Oak has not been beaten since joining his new trainer. Having scored in easy fashion in a couple of Points before the turn of the year he turned his attentions to Hunter Chasing where he recorded another two wins in testing conditions. The form of his two wide margin wins under rules at Kelso and Haydock are not up to the standard required to win this race and his jumping at times can be sketchy. Any jumping frailties will be exposed at this level and he is opposed. Gordon Elliot used to train Cottage Oak and he is responsible for Backstage who returned to winning ways in a Point in Ireland last time but his main aim is the Grand National and he is overlooked.

Dante’s Storm was fifth in this race two years ago when setting an overly strong pace and making too many errors. Having needed his reapperance run after a long absence he has scored easily in his last two starts. He cruised clear of useful Hunter Rumbury Grey at Doncaster last time and looked better than ever. More importantly his jumping looked more assured. Overall his form and jumping looks better than when fifth in this race in 2011 and with the addition of a tongue tie he could get much closer under regular rider Phil York.

That’s Rhythm chased home Salsify at Stratford last year and he was comfortably beaten on that occasion and he hasn’t done enough since then to think he can turn the form around.

Oscar Delta has finished third in this race for the last two years but his form this season is not quite at the level of previous years. While a return to form would not surprise he may be vulnerable to a pair if younger legs.

Kirkleigh and Radetsky March have both won Hunter Chase’s recently but will have to step up plenty to get involved here. Doctor Kingsley was unimpressive in a point last time and may also struggle. Creevytennant looked good at Musselburgh last time but despite being a winner here in the past (when jumping violently right) he looks a better horse right handed as he cannot afford to forfeit ground in a race of this nature.

Of the others at big prices Faasel, who has been placed at three festivals in the past, appeals somewhat. He bounced back to form to win a couple of points before disappointing last time. If on a going day he may out run his odds.

* = Non-runner no bet.

GROUND CONDITIONS
 
Official going: Soft (Good to soft in places).
 
Weather: Cool. Overcast.
 
BETTING MOVES
 
Morning prices: 5-2 Salsify, 9-2 Chapoturgeon, 8-1 Backstage, 9-1 Cottage Oak, 10-1 Tricky Trickster, 16-1 That’s Rhythm, 20-1 bar.
 
Salsify was a solid favourite.
Chapoturgeon also attracted money.
Tricky Trickster seemed the most popular each-way selection.
That’s Rhythm and, at long odds, Faasel drifted as off-time appraoched.
 
RACE LINE-UP
 
Salsify was attempting to do something no winner in the past ten years had managed – taking this prize for a second time – so punters backing him were banking on a little piece of Cheltenham Festival history. They were also flying in the face of the stat revealing that six of the last seven market-leaders had been beaten. Second-favourites did not have a great recent record, either, with just one victory – that of Cappa Bleu (11-2 in 2009) – in the previous decade. Taking notice of that trend suggested it was less than shrewd to support last season’s runner-up Chapoturgeon, who had warmed up for this with an impressive victory at Newbury. Upsets are far from rare in this contest, indeed, as, during the past ten years, successes have come at 33-1 (twice) and 20-1 (twice). Nonetheless, all of the last five winning candidates lined up having collected last-time-out.
   
HOW IT PANNED OUT
 
The most dramatic event of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival fell into to the lap of the 2012 winner SALSIFY.
He won the prize by a huge margin, but only because Oscar Delta – in a clear lead on the run-in – suddenly ducked out under a rail.
Divine Intavention picked up the pieces to grab second, ahead of Cottage Oak third, with Doctor Kingsley the only other to complete the course.
Creevytenant had set the race up, starting quickly and galloping along at a decent pace.
Oscar Delta was always close up, but Salsify was restrained towards the rear, just as he had been 12 months earlier.
Creevytenant was still in front at the fourth-last, but he was soon overhauled by Oscar Delta, who jumped the final fence with a clear lead.
He seemed certain to collect at that stage, despite Salsify closing him down to about three lengths, but then disaster struck.
The winner’s margin of victory was 20 lengths, with the second and third divided by just a neck.
 
RACE POINTERS
 
Oscar Delta, third in this contest in both 2011 and 2012, was the moral victor here.
Rider Jane Mangan had done everything right, but earned no reward for her efforts.
Salsify will go down as the winner, though, and his partner, Coleman Sweeney, said: “We were lucky. I probably gave him too much to do.”