4

18:40 Aintree 12 Apr 2012

John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase

National Course | Class 2 | 6YO plus

Winner £20,986 - 26 ran

2m 5f 110y

Good to Soft (Good in places at fences 13 and 14)

Draw Advantage: None

Expert Analysis

Reporter: Administrator

Expert Analysis

Reporter: Paul Jones

Last year’s race

Baby Run
  • Winner: Baby Run
  • Jockey: Willie Twiston-Davies
  • Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • Owner: Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • Age: 10 Weight: 12st 0lb
  • Starting Price: 3/1f
  • Season Form Figures: 11U
  • Previous Best: 1st - Walrus Hunters Chase, Haydock

Although the race now attracts a maximum field don’t be fooled into thinking it is an open event as the front four in the market have an extraordinarily strong record over the last 19 years winning on 17 occasions, Baby Run being the latest 12 months ago when justifying favouritism. Being on a horse that likes to be ridden prominently is also an advantage and no hunter was ever going to lead Baby Run last year who made virtually all the running.

They don’t hang about in this big-field amateur riders’ contest and, time and again, it pays to be in the front rank from early on as it does with the Topham and Grand Sefton over this trip on this course. Front runners tend not to come back to rest of the field en masse; one or two usually keep up the gallop.

The victories of Silver Adonis and Baby Run during the last two years saw a return to the domination of ex-handicappers, six of his kind having landed this from 2002-2007.

I unquestionably prefer to look at the younger hunters for the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ where 20 of the last 22 winners were aged nine or younger (including the first four last month) but it is completely the opposite for Aintree’s big hunter chase over the Grand National obstacles where all but two of the last 28 winners were aged at least nine. Common sense dictates it should be the other way round as this is more of a test of speed but experience counts for an awful lot over these big fences and older and therefore more experienced horses are just better equipped to deal with it hence their very strong record and it is a similar story with the Grand National.

Trust Fund and Christy Beamish had won in 2008 and 2009 for horses which had started out as pointers, but the victories of Silver Adonis and Baby Run during the last two years saw a return to the domination of ex-handicappers, six of his kind having landed this from 2002-2007. Another strong statistic is that 16 of the last 19 winners finished placed at worst last time out. One of those was last year’s winner, Baby Run, who unseated his rider two when leading the Christie’s Foxhunters’ at the Cheltenham Festival. The point I am really getting at therefore is to only consider in-form horses.

The two best guides have been the Christie’s Foxhunters’ at Cheltenham in which Salsify beat Chapoturgeon and Oscar Delta which has featured three ten winners and the Walrus Hunters’ Chase at Haydock won by Unowatimeen who beat Turko after the favourite, Description, fell on the back straight of the second circuit. No Irish hunter chase features as a leading guide as only Enda Bolger’s Elegant Lord in 1999 has inscribed his name on the Roll of Honour in the last 28 years for the Irish which is a desperate indictment on a nation steeped in history in the point-to-point and hunter chase field.

At a glance summary

Positives
First four in the betting
Prominent racers
Contested the Christies’ Foxhunters’ or Walrus Hunters’ Chase
Negatives
Aged eight or younger
Failed to finish in the first four last time out
Trained in Ireland

Previous Winners

Year Winner Trainer Jockey Age/Wt OR SP
2011 Baby Run Nigel Twiston-Davies William Twiston-Davies 11/12:00 136 3-1f
2010 Silver Adonis Dr. Richard Newland Tom Weston 9/12:00 116 50-1
2009 Trust Fund R Barber Mr T Greenhall 11/12:00 136 13-2
2008 Christy Beamish P Jones Mr Joshua Guerriero 11/12:00 121 6-1
2007 Scots Grey Nicky Henderson Mr R Burton 12/12:00 130 9-2
2006 Katarino Robert Waley-Cohen Sam Waley-Cohen 11/12:00 / 11-2
2005 Katarino Robert Waley-Cohen Sam Waley-Cohen 10/12:00 / 100-30f
2004 Forest Gunner Richard Ford Carrie Ford 10/12:00 120 13-2
2003 Divet Hill Ann Hamilton Dale Jewett 9/12:00 125 11-2
2002 Torduff Express Paul Nicholls Polly Gundry 11/12:00 122 8-1

Expert Analysis

Reporter: +

Future Form

Type Stats Type Stats
Summary 94 runs, 12 wins (8 horses), 15 placed, 67 unplaced Next time out 24 runs, 2 wins, 4 placed, 18 unplaced
Class analysis 0 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 0 unplaced Ratings check Highest winning OR: 138; Highest placed OR: 138