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16:45 Aintree 08 Apr 2017

Gaskells Handicap Hurdle

Grade 3 | Class 1 | 4YO plus

Winner £39,389 - 22 ran

3m 149y

Good

Draw Advantage: None

Expert Analysis

Reporter:

Last year’s race

Ubak
  • Winner: Ubak
  • Jockey: Joshua Moore
  • Trainer: G L Moore
  • Owner: Mr Nick Peacock
  • Age: 8 Weight: 11st 0lb
  • Starting Price: 16/1
  • Season Form Figures: 4U423
  • Previous Best: 1st - Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2), Aintree (April 2013)

Six of the last 11 runnings have gone the way of a novice so, in common with the 2m4f handicap at this fixture, this race has proved a happy hunting ground for first-season hurdlers. The four successful novices who won between 2006-2009 were all were stepping up in trip. The best novice guide has been the EBF Final at Sandown, a novice handicap that always contains a clutch of highly promising looking chasers in the making and provided the winner three years running from 2007-2009 and the winner three years ago, Doctor Harper.

Sixteen of the 29 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival and this is effectively the Aintree equivalent race of the Pertemps Network Final (minus the endless qualifying races) so it is no surprise to see that handicap at Cheltenham have a bearing with six winners here having run in that Final since 1988. It is worth noting that although the Pertemps Final is the more valuable of the two races, that contest only has Listed status whereas this race was raised to Grade 3 level in 2010 so it should theoretically be the stronger of the two handicaps.

Six of the last nine winners of that Final also lined up here with Cape Tribulation completing the double in 2012 and Call The Cops was only beaten a head here by the Coral Cup fourth, Taglietelle, when trying to emulate him two years ago. Freetown also placed here after winning the Pertemps in 2002. Last year’s winner, Ubak, had previously finished third in the Coral Cup.

Six of the last 11 runnings have gone the way of a novice so, in common with the 2m4f handicap at this fixture, this race has proved a happy hunting ground for first-season hurdlers.

Only five of the 29 winners had been successful last time out but that includes four of the last 12. Prior to Battle Group’s win four years ago, the previous nine winners all arrived here with a win earlier in the season behind them as had 19 in all. Only one of the last 19 winners had not run at least four times earlier in the season. As many as 11 winners had run over fences earlier in the season, three of which on their last start. That’s a high strike rate in 28 years, especially given how well novice hurdlers have performed as, generally speaking, very few of those will have been chasing at some point in their career.

Just two five-year-olds have won, they being Escartefigue (who was better at Aintree than anywhere else) and Time For Rupert and both went on to make top-notch chasers.

Jonjo O'Neill is best known for his stayers and he has won this race four times in the last 15 years, twice with novices, so it is surprising that he has ran just three horses in the last six years which included a close-up 25/1 third. The Irish took this prize for the third time two years ago and the first time in 13 years since Ross Moff was successful. Mouse Morris saddled the first Irish winner, What A Question, and has had three others placed, but hasn't had a runner in any of the last 11 years.

Three successive favourites obliged before Time For Rupert won at 50/1, the race's biggest-priced winner, and it was the gambled-on Battle Group that gave favourites another victory four years ago, albeit the co-favourite of three at 8/1 leading home another co-favourite in second. Three favourites went in during the 1990s and six in total have finished second so it has been relatively punter friendly given how competitive it is. The second-favourite beat the favourite into second place two years ago.

Positives
Novices
Last-time-out winners
Contested the Pertemps Network Final
Contested the EBF Novices' Hurdle Final
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Had been chasing earlier in the season
Negatives
Five-year-olds
Failed to win earlier in the season
Less than four starts this season

Expert Analysis

Reporter:

Future Form

Type Stats Type Stats
Summary 108 runs, 15 wins (11 horses), 18 placed, 75 unplaced Next time out 21 runs, 3 wins, 2 placed, 16 unplaced
Class analysis 9 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 9 unplaced Ratings check Highest winning OR: 146; Highest placed OR: 146