John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle
Grade 1 | Class 1 | 4YO plus
Winner £56,520 - 19 ran
mid-division, headway after 4th, led after 10th, not fluent 2 out, driven and stayed on well flat
mid-division, headway when not fluent 3 out, soon went 3rd, not fluent 2 out, stayed on under pressure to take 2nd flat, not able to troubled winner
held up in rear, took keen hold, steady headway from 8th, pressed winner after 10th, pushed along to challenge 3 out, no impression when hung left and lost 2nd flat, no extra
tracked leader, led approaching 10th, headed soon after, outpaced before 3 out, stayed on flat
held up in rear, not fluent 4th, stayed on from 3 out, switched right flat, never nearer
led, headed approaching 10th, no impression and well held before 3 out
mid-division, headway after 7th, went 3rd briefly approaching 3 out, weakened last
tracked leaders, not fluent 3rd, jumped slowly 6th, ridden after 4 out, weakened well before 3 out, tailed off
mid-division, struggling when mistake 9th, soon well behind, tailed off
tracked leaders, ridden after 10th, weakened approaching 3 out, tailed off
prominent, jumped slowly 3rd, not fluent 8th, soon lost place, tailed off when pulled up before 3 out
held up towards rear, not fluent 8th, headway approaching 3 out, disputing 3rd and staying on when bumped and fell 2 out
mid-division, headway after 7th, weakened after 4 out, pulled up before 3 out
held up towards rear on inside, mistake 6th, behind 10th, pulled up before 3 out
in touch, ridden after 10th, weakened and pulled up before 3 out
mid-division, reminder after 4th, lost place 6th, behind 8th, pulled up before 3 out
held up towards rear, not fluent 4th, headway after 4 out, weakening when mistake 3 out, pulled up before 2 out
tracked leaders, hit 2nd, lost place 5th, behind 9th, pulled up before 3 out
held up in rear, headway 3 out, 8th and staying on when fell 2 out
This used to be the strongest of all the novice hurdle races from a patterns point of view but recent results have suggested this is no longer the case. Wayward Prince busted a couple of the big trends last season, not least the fact his victory meant he became the first horse in 16 runnings to win having not won at least twice over timber beforehand. I would argue the more wins over hurdles the better as what we want is a real tough nut for this race that stands it racing well and seven of those winners had at won at least four times over hurdles in their winning year. The other big stat last year’s winner took out was that he had not accrued the experience that 16 of the previous 17 winners had over hurdles as this was his fourth hurdling start whereas all bar one of the other winners in that time frame had ran at least four times over timber with half of those having raced significantly more than that.
The best guide hasn’t been a Cheltenham Festival event but the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock in January having featured four of the last ten winners and this season went the way of the Howard Johnson-trained Back In Focus who was winning that Grade 2 affair on testing ground on his debut under Rules having won a point-to-point in Ireland only the previous month. On that occasion he took the scalp of the odds-on Court In Motion by six lengths in receipt of 7lbs with Neptune Equester back in third. Another good guide outside of the Festival has been the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham’s December fixture which has featured three of the last ten winners which was won by Mossley from Join Together and Teaforthree. Although six of the last 13 winners took part at the Cheltenham Festival, I would have expected that figure to be higher and the last three Sefton winners all gave it a wide berth. In fact the 1-2-3 for the last two seasons all missed the Cheltenham Festival and should any of the first three home in the Neptune (First Lieutenant, Rock On Ruby and So Young) take their chance, bear in mind that the last 15 win-or-placed horses to run here have been beaten.
As bizarrely there is no equivalent race at the five-day Punchestown Festival, we have to respect the Irish and especially those that bypassed Cheltenham like Sackville and Asian Maze. Western Leader finished second for them last season but incurred a career-ending injury in the process. A stat Wayward Prince upheld last season was that he had won over three miles before (11 of the last 17 winners have now achieved this feat), in fact, he had been purely restricted to 3m+ races. I take the view that stronger stamina levels are to be found in older horses so I am not surprised at how poorly four and five-year-olds have fared here. Since the race was inaugurated in 1988, no four-year-old has ever managed to lift the crown and five-year-olds haven’t fared much better.
| Type | Stats | Type | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Summary | 104 runs, 14 wins (10 horses), 26 placed, 64 unplaced | Next time out | 19 runs, 2 wins, 3 placed, 14 unplaced |
| Class analysis | 0 runs up in class, 0 wins, 0 placed, 0 unplaced | Ratings check | Highest winning OR: 151; Highest placed OR: 151 |
